Major changes in fuels, electrification and infrastructure are about to come to maritime and road transport sectors over the next three decades, as they must meet the need to transport ever-larger numbers of people and volumes of freight, while at the same time decarbonizing the sector, states DNV’s annual Energy Transition Outlook.
Transport will be the most dynamic of the energy demand sectors through 2050. Electricity is continuing to gain traction in previously thought to be hard-to-electrify sectors including heavy trucking and aviation. In fact, electricity’s share in transport will grow from 1% today to 23% in 2050. However, road transport will be the first to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, from 38 million barrels per day (bpd) today to 19 million bpd in 2050, reducing its share from 91% to 57%.
Despite oil demand in the transport sector forecast to half by 2050, the present pace of the transition still falls severely short of the goals of the Paris Agreement. Opportunities to accelerate change through pilot projects and uptake of alternative energy need to be seized as soon as possible. Today, transport of passengers and goods accounts for about a quarter of global energy-related CO2 emissions, a share that will grow to 30% by 2050.
For Maritime Transport, there is likely to be a shift by 2050 from almost exclusive use of oil to an energy mix comprising 50% low-carbon or carbon-free fuels, 19% natural gas and 18% biomass. Electricity will only get a 4% share, mostly limited to short sea shipping and port stays for larger vessels.
Source: DNV
