Europe (EU-27 + UK, Norway, and Switzerland) could produce 111 bcm of biomethane by 2040, according to a new report presented by the European Biogas Association (EBA), entitled ‘Biogases towards 2040 and beyond’. This amount represents more than 30% of the EU’s gas consumption in 2022.
The biomethane potential for Europe in 2040 estimated in the report includes 75 bcm from anaerobic digestion and 37 bcm from thermal gasification. The largest producers in 2040 are estimated to be Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Poland, in addition to the UK.
Momentum is building today to reach the REPowerEU target of 35 bcm of biomethane and the industry is rapidly moving towards exponential growth of biomethane. Europe today produces 4 bcm of biomethane (according to the latest consolidated EBA data from 2022) thanks to newly built plants and upgrading of existing biogas units. The production of raw biogas used mainly in CHP plants is currently 17 bcm.
The EU’s attention is now focused on 2040 as a medium-term milestone towards climate neutrality. The European Commission recommends a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of 90% by 2040, compared to 1990 levels. This will require further action to decarbonise in all sectors of the economy. The accompanying impact assessment shows that even in an economy-wide accelerated electrification scenario, there will still be substantial demand for gas, which can be progressively replaced by renewable gases, such as biomethane.
The largest producers in 2040 are estimated to be Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Poland, in addition to the UK.
EBA’s latest report also provides a specific update of the ‘2022 Gas for Climate’ study following the same assumptions and methodology but incorporating more recent data and insights to revise the potential estimates for 2030 and 2050. The latest analysis shows that up to 44 bcm of biomethane produced in Europe could be used in 2030 and 165 bcm in 2050.
In addition to the assessment of biomethane potential, the study provides further information on new feedstocks and technologies that can increase the potential for biomethane production. Realising these potentials will require a favourable and stable policy environment that provides certainty to stakeholders across the biomethane value chain, but with the right conditions, there is significant potential waiting to be unlocked.
